Early efforts are showing promise, meaning we could optimistically expect moderately effective vaccines to be available by the end of 2020 to early 2021. While producing vaccines for past coronaviruses was problematic, there has been significant progress for SARS-CoV-2.
The memory cells that produce antibodies could remain effective for as few as a couple of months, or last as long as a couple of years or more.Ī vaccine distributed and delivered within a short enough time frame could force the R (number of people likely to be infected by another infected person) to drop below a figure necessary for the virus to hang around.
This factor depends on how long the average person retains immunity from SARS-CoV-2, a factor that is still unclear. Without social isolation to reduce the virus's transmission from infected parties, protection from widespread immunity is the next best thing. In best cases, a month or two of perfect global isolation appears to be enough to clear all humans of the virus for good.
One early study showed it remains viable for about nine days after first symptoms appear, with viral fragments detectable as long as a month later. Knowing how long the virus persists in a human body is a little harder to pin down. SARS-CoV-2 particles would then break down in the air within hours. In a perfect world, where distancing was followed strictly enough to make the number of community transmissions negligible all over the world, the current generation of functioning virus particles would be the last. Others are affected by economic decisions, lacking social welfare to support them. Some are influenced by personal, political, and moral values. The reasons why people in different communities don't engage in social distancing are complex and varied. Taking the actions of nations such as New Zealand and Vietnam as case studies, effective social distancing measures are an effective way to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2, showing that the virus can be eradicated on at least a local level. Much as predictions on climate change vary depending on how we act now, it might be possible to propose scenarios that similarly forecast the different futures facing us. While much has been learned about the virus's ability to spread between people, infect cells, and put infected people at risk of a range of major health problems, estimating its duration in a global population depends on how we all behave, which can be much harder to model.
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